- A current account balance that is generally well-managed, but significantly deteriorated in 2022 and 2023 due to the dynamism of private investments, primarily in the extractive sector.
Evolution of the balance of payments balances (As a % of GDP)
|
Designation |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 (est.) |
2024 (proj.) |
2025 (proj.) |
|
Current account/GDP (%) |
-0.4 |
-0.9 |
-2.0 |
-3.5 |
-2.2 |
-3.1 |
-3.9 |
-7.7 |
-8.1 |
-6.8 |
-4.7 |
|
Overall balance/GDP (%) |
0.9 |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
-0.7 |
-2.6 |
-0.9 |
2.0 |
Sources: BCEAO, DGE
During the period 2018-2021, the external situation of Côte d'Ivoire remains generally viable with a current account deficit averaging 3.2% of GDP. The structure of Côte d'Ivoire's balance of payments is characterized by an average trade surplus of 0.7% of GDP and a deficit in services and income accounts.
In 2021, the current account balance of the balance of payments stood at -3.9% of GDP. However, the overall balance was in surplus at 1,095.6 billion FCFA, or 2.7% of GDP, due to strong mobilization of external resources by the public administration.
In 2022, the evolution of external trade was marked by a significant deterioration in the current account deficit estimated at 3,364.4 billion (-7.7% of GDP), due to the deterioration of the goods and services balance.
The surplus in the goods balance recorded a decrease of 60.4% compared to 2021. This deterioration is linked to the increase in the import bill following the rise in prices of imported goods in 2022.
Regarding services, the deficit widened to 2,377.9 billion, or 5.4% of GDP, after -4.1% of GDP, mainly due to the dynamism of private investments in the extractive sector for the exploitation of various oil fields, including Baleine.
The primary and secondary income balances remain in deficit, estimated at 3.3% and 0.5% of GDP, respectively.
At the capital account level, the structurally surplus balance recorded a decline due to the decrease in project grants expected by the central administration. Thus, the surplus is expected to be 39.2 billion, or 0.1% of GDP.
At the financial account level, net capital inflows stood at 6.9% of GDP compared to 6.4% in 2021, mainly due to the mobilization of other investments (4.4% of GDP), linked to the mobilization of project loan disbursements. Net foreign direct investment increased by 2.0% compared to 2021, reaching 2.0% of GDP.
This resulted in an overall deficit balance of 0.7% of GDP after a surplus of 2.7% of GDP in 2021.
In 2023, the current account is expected to record a deficit of 3,889.7 billion FCFA, representing 8.1% of GDP in 2023, after a deficit of 3,364.5 billion FCFA (7.7% of GDP) in 2022. This widening of the current deficit would be due to the deficits in services and primary income, despite an increase in the goods surplus.
As for the goods balance, it would show a larger positive balance than the previous year by 47.3% due to the increase in exports and a decrease in imports. Indeed, merchandise sales abroad increased by 1.7% in 2023 compared to 2022. This evolution is attributed to the increase, in value, of sales of processed cocoa (+23.9%), cashew nuts (+23.9%), non-monetary gold (+19.8%), rubber (+3.1%), and cocoa beans (+1.2%). As for FOB imports, they would decrease by 1.5%, following a withdrawal, in value, of food products by 4.7%, petroleum products by 2.4%, intermediate goods by 1.6%, capital goods by 0.9%, and other consumer goods by 0.8%.
Regarding services, their deficit would increase by 16.8% compared to 2022, mainly due to continued payments for technical services in the oil and mining sectors.
Similarly, the income deficit has worsened due to the increase in interest paid on public and private debts and the repatriation of dividends.
Concerning the capital account surplus, it would strengthen, linked to the increase in project grants received by the public administration.
The financial account, for its part, would record a net inflow of foreign capital into the Ivorian economy in 2023, lower than that of 2022, mainly due to the decrease in mobilization of external financial resources by the public administration.
The overall balance resulting from all these transactions would be a deficit of 1,236.0 billion FCFA (-2.6% of GDP).
Over the period 2024-2026, the current deficit is expected to improve compared to 2023, averaging 5.4% of GDP. To finance this deficit, net capital inflows would average 5.8% of GDP.
The overall balance, for its part, would show an average surplus of 0.5% of GDP. Nevertheless, the external position would remain comfortable due to the successive surpluses recorded in previous years.
