• A generally well-managed current account balance, but significantly deteriorated in 2022 and 2023 due to the dynamism of private investments, particularly in the extractive sector.

Sources : BCEAO, DGE

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During the period 2018–2021, Côte d'Ivoire's external position remained generally sustainable, with a current account deficit averaging 3.2% of GDP. The structure of Côte d'Ivoire's balance of payments is characterized by an average trade surplus of 0.7% of GDP and a deficit in services and income accounts.

In 2021, the current account balance of payments showed a deficit of -3.9% of GDP. However, the overall balance was in surplus at 1,095.6 billion CFA francs, or 2.7% of GDP, driven by strong mobilization of external resources by the public administration.

In 2022, external trade developments were marked by a sharp deterioration in the current account balance deficit, estimated at 3,364.4 billion CFA francs (-7.7% of GDP), due to the worsening balance of goods and services.

The trade balance surplus decreased by 60.4% compared to 2021, linked to the rising cost of imports due to higher prices for imported goods in 2022.

For services, the deficit widened to 2,377.9 billion CFA francs, representing 5.4% of GDP, compared to -4.1% of GDP, mainly due to the dynamism of private investments in the extractive sector for the development of various oil fields, including Baleine.

Primary and secondary income balances remained in deficit, estimated at 3.3% and 0.5% of GDP, respectively.

At the capital account level, the structurally surplus balance recorded a decline due to reduced project grants expected by the central administration. Thus, the surplus is expected to be 39.2 billion CFA francs, or 0.1% of GDP.

In the financial account, net capital inflows amounted to 6.9% of GDP compared to 6.4% in 2021, mainly due to the mobilization of other investments (4.4% of GDP) linked to the disbursement of project loans. Net foreign direct investment increased by 2.0% compared to 2021, reaching 2.0% of GDP.

This resulted in an overall balance deficit of 0.7% of GDP, following a surplus of 2.7% of GDP in 2021.

In 2023, the current account deficit is projected to reach 3,889.7 billion CFA francs, representing 8.1% of GDP, after 3,364.5 billion CFA francs (7.7% of GDP) in 2022. This widening of the current account deficit is attributed to deficits in services and primary income, despite an increase in the trade surplus.

The trade balance is expected to record a higher surplus than the previous year, increasing by 47.3%, due to a rise in exports and a decrease in imports. Merchandise exports increased by 1.7% in 2023 compared to 2022, driven by value growth in processed cocoa (+23.9%), cashew nuts (+23.9%), non-monetary gold (+19.8%), rubber (+3.1%), and cocoa beans (+1.2%). FOB imports are expected to decline by 1.5%, primarily due to reductions in food products (-4.7%), petroleum products (-2.4%), intermediate goods (-1.6%), capital goods (-0.9%), and other consumer goods (-0.8%).

For services, the deficit is expected to increase by 16.8% compared to 2022, mainly due to ongoing payments for technical services in the oil and mining sectors.

Similarly, the income deficit has worsened due to higher interest payments on public and private debt and dividend repatriation.

Regarding the capital account surplus, it is expected to strengthen, driven by an increase in project grants received by the public administration.

The financial account is expected to record lower net foreign capital inflows into Côte d'Ivoire's economy in 2023 compared to 2022, mainly due to reduced mobilization of external financial resources by the public administration.

The overall balance resulting from these transactions is projected to show a deficit of 1,236.0 billion CFA francs (-2.6% of GDP).

During the period 2024–2026, the current account deficit is expected to improve compared to 2023, averaging 5.4% of GDP. To finance this deficit, net capital inflows are projected to average 5.8% of GDP.

The overall balance is expected to show an average surplus of 0.5% of GDP. Nonetheless, the external position would remain comfortable due to successive surpluses recorded in previous years.