Global Cocoa Market: Towards a Surplus in 2024/2025, but Uncertainties Remain

After three consecutive years of deficit, the global cocoa market is heading towards a surplus of 142,000 tons for the 2024/2025 season, according to recent projections from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). This trend reversal follows a deficit of 441,000 tons recorded in the previous season. 

This improvement is mainly attributed to an increase in production in the leading producing countries. In Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest producer, the harvest is anticipated to be 1.85 million tons for 2024/2025, up from 1.6 million tons in the previous season. Similarly, Ghana is expected to see its production rise from 530,000 tons to 600,000 tons during the same period. 

This increase in global supply, estimated at 7.8% to reach 4.8 million tons, is partly due to high cocoa prices that have encouraged producers to invest more in their plantations. However, this increase in supply could lead to a decrease in prices on the international market. 

At the same time, the ICCO forecasts a decrease in global demand, with a 4.8% drop in cocoa grindings, estimated at 4.65 million tons for the 2024/2025 season. This contraction is attributed to the surge in raw material costs, which is weighing on the margins of processors and chocolatiers. 

Despite these optimistic forecasts, some analysts express reservations about the realization of this surplus. Uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the mid-crop in Côte d'Ivoire and the climatic conditions that could affect production. These factors could potentially alter current forecasts and influence the balance of the global cocoa market. 

In conclusion, while current projections suggest a return to a surplus in the cocoa market for the 2024/2025 season, the situation remains sensitive to climatic uncertainties and the dynamics of supply and demand. Industry players will need to stay vigilant in the face of these developments to adapt to potential market fluctuations. 

Source: Agence ecofin, Editorial Team MEPD Web Portal